Is it a balloon? In my opinion – no. There are always the predictions for a crash. A month ago the BCH tried to overrun the Bitcoin and all it managed was clearing the debris and making it stronger. But why the conviction? Plenty of reasons!
First of all, we are all aware we need a form of gold standard equivalent in the crypto world. The traditional fiat currencies were (and I emphasize on “were”) backed with gold. Bitcoin is backed with powerful miners and lots of power spend on it. It is backed by the fiat spent to buy it. It’s backed by the collective will to see the cryptocurrencies take over the nearly obsolete and corrupted payment systems. Where your local currency depends on the country economy, there are no borders in the crypto world.
Still, trying to be a little sceptic – the only way to measure its cost today is the USD or EUR equivalent. I can’t buy a new GPU if there wasn’t fiat cost attached to it, so we are far from having the Bitcoin serve as a regular currency. It’s just another currency, albeit expensive and a bit easier to exchange than something exotic from Kuwait, for example. But there is a long way to accepting it in the grocery store (I can’t pay there with dollars either, anyway), and this is when it will have a real value. And it will be a lot in USD.
Bitcoin is survivalist
The “this is a balloon” crowd would be vocal at any given age of the Bitcoin growth. They were there at $200, whole movements telling you not to buy. There was even a moron named James Dimon from J.P. Morgan that tried to tell the world how fucked up Bitcoin is, and then bought some after price crashed. You see – that’s the thing that makes it stronger. There is no limit when everyone would cash out. The Average Joe would have left the ship a month ago when Roger Ver and company invested millions in a failed attack on Bitcoin. The Bitcoin price crashed but not for the reasons they wanted – we all SOLD on Market price back then! Why? Well, they’ve set up a short position for thousands of Bitcoin Cash at 0.5 BTC. But then they forgot to pump the fiat rates, and we all sold the Bitcoin for whatever it took, and then bought BCH at fraction of the 0.5 BTC they bought it off, and sold them BCH. Imagine you sold 1 BTC for 4800 EUR, bought 4 BCH at 1200 each, and sold them for 2 BTC. This is how Bitcoin price “crashed”. It wasn’t a crash, it only managed to remove some of the not so brave investors and cleared the way to 10k.
Most people still don’t know about it
No, seriously, your grandma has no idea about Bitcoin. I know a person that sells mining rigs and doesn’t believe in BTC. May be you didn’t know about it few years ago. Personally – I sold all of my coins together with a 6.5 kW worth of mining rigs for cash when it was struggling to get past 11 EUR. But they started trading it at big exchanges. Now it’s in the every day’s news. May be not for CNN, but when I went to my bank and saw their newspaper suggesting that you should invest in cryptocurrencies, I knew we are past the times of obscurity, now there i a real interest there, and anyone cashing out would meet someone that wants to invest.
Your grandma doesn’t know about stock exchange either. She has heard about it, and that’s all. But you may have been trading for years, and trying to explain it to her, and yet to have any luck. The fact she wouldn’t hear about it doesn’t make the exchange disappear, in fact it became the place where real money are made despite most of the people knowing nothing about it. Its the same with Bitcoin. It doesn’t matter if your parents invested. You should do it, because your childred will know bout it.
Big Bang Theory airs and episode about crypto
BBT is all about nerdiness, so it was about time they made something for the cryptocurrencies. It’s coming in a day or two, and imagine there will be people that will be like “OMG, I really missed that?”. It’s PR of the highest level. Pair it with a regular supply of popularity-boosting news, and there is a paved road to 50k by the end of 2019. I even doubt that it will take that long.
The skeptic’s “Banks could kill it any moment”
No, they can’t. Just a small fraction of all Bitcoins sits readily on exchanges, and even if all the banks decide to buy all of it and sell it cheaper, they will trade few percent of the coins and boost the price tenfold or more. And to buy it off exchanges and then sell it cheap they will need the one thing that makes them what they are – fiat money. They can’t afford such losses. They could bully it for time, but the more they buy, the more people will hold and sell higher, so such an attack will only manage to strengthen it. What banks can do is ban all crypto-exchange accounts. But they are not a single entity and then there will be a bank (or many of them) that doesn’t care and still pays your cash, and the rest of them would be weaker.
You probably have some of these bullies in your country. Where I live, Raiffeisen bank declined all incoming and outgoing transfers to known crypto accounts. There was a time I sold 1 BTC for 8 EUR and they charged me 11 EUR for the transfer. Guess what? They never saw me again. They lost the 250k a guy was trying to transfer to Kraken along with all of his savings to another bank – one that didn’t mind incoming or outgoing transfers to the crypto world. And then there are services to mask your crypto trade and they can’t deal with them, as they are just another personal account somewhere and there is no knowledge whether the money in there are from crypto trade, mining, selling your bike on ebay or being paid for Google ads.
Written in stone: You should hold
I was better skeptic than you. As I said – I sold when it was impossibly cheap. But take a look at that – it’s old, mind you, this image was not made yesterday:
What it says, beyond the fact we are going to 100k one day, is that you should ignore the daily or even weekly and monthly fluctuations. What matters is the price after few months or even a year. IMO – pull out your expenses if you have to, but hodl.